Keeley Funds Market Outlook and Commentary - 2011 Year End Roundtable
JIM STAMPER: You alluded to the performance of dividend payers last year and obviously because of their performance they received a lot more attention. What do you believe the outlook for this universe is going forward?
TOM BROWNE, JR.: Generally positive but a little bit cautious. I mean the positives are driven by the fact that more companies seem to be getting the light in terms of, or seeing the light in terms of paying out dividends. You're seeing pretty strong increases by companies who do pay dividends and you're seeing companies that you never thought would initiate a dividend, initiate a dividend as a way of returning capital to shareholders. That's a positive. And that could go on for quite a while. The dividend payout ratio is towards the historically low end of the range. So that could move up quite a bit over time. The caution stems from two things. The first is that whenever you're doing something that all of a sudden becomes popular to other people you have to be a little bit careful. And then the second thing is that the dividend preference that the lower tax rate for dividends is set to expire at the end of the year. I don't think that's going to be a big impact but you never know until it happens.
JIM STAMPER: Lastly, Tom, your team recently launched a Mid-Cap Dividend Value Fund. Are the characteristics and the opportunity set similar to the small cap?
TOM BROWNE, JR.: Jim, they pretty much are, that over the last 20 years the mid-cap dividend payers have outperformed the mid-cap non-dividend payers. The superiority in performance in mid-cap is less than it is in small cap, as you see with many of these kinds of anomalies in finance. But the risk characteristics are attractive just as they are with the small cap dividend payers.
JIM STAMPER: Great. This question's for everyone, just talking about 2012 in general. Is there any large concern? What concerns you the most as we head into this New Year?
BOB BECKER: We've said before we're really concerned about government regulation that would stop companies from making acquisitions, deploying cash, hiring workers. If we can get some clarity on that, a little less onerus regulation, I think that'd be helpful but it's a concern. We've also already said we have some foreign currency headwinds, we've got pension financially. Ironically, when interest rates are this low, the pension fund liability is large. I look at it from an accounting situation but nevertheless it costs real dollars to put that money up. And then what happens with taxes going forward, these are some of the concerns we have.
JOHN L. KEELEY, JR.: One of the things that concerns me, as Bob mentioned, regulation and whether or not there's going to be any change in the tax situation, whether it's dividends or capital gains or just taxes on individuals' income. We've got a 3.8, I believe it's 3.8% rise in investment income to pay for Obamacare. These are things that are going to be concerns to everybody and whether or not this impacts employment which of course impacts housing. So it becomes kind of a vicious circle.
JIM STAMPER: Lastly, 2012 is a pretty significant year with regard to the election and investor anxiety may increase due to the uncertainty tied to the election results. Do we have any thoughts with regard to the impact of the coming elections?
JOHN L. KEELEY, JR.: The outcome of the election is going to determine what is going to happen as far as regulations, either the implementation of more or the easing of current regulations and how this impacts the job market and impacts the economy in general, whether it's taxes of all different shapes and sizes, whether it's Obamacare, and things of that nature.
BOB BECKER: It may also be that regardless of the presidential outcome, we probably are entering a period of gridlock whether we like it or not. It's going to be a little harder to put on new programs and hopefully we'll be able to restrain existing programs if Congress is ever to get to a compromised position. But I don't think this is a period where a lot of programs will be easily expanded.
TOM BROWNE, JR.: I guess I think it'll just be good to have it over with. You know in addition to being tired of hearing about it all the time, I can't ever remember a period in my career where I've heard CEO's and CFO's express as much concern about the uncertainty in Washington. So with any luck there will be a little less uncertainty after the election than there is currently.
JOHN L. KEELEY, JR.: One of the things I failed to mention is if we could ever get rid of this ban on drilling and to become more energy efficient and not keep wasting money on these government programs for windmills and solar power and get back to some kind of an energy program, because we certainly have the capability of whether it's oil or coal or natural gas to be self-sufficient.
JIM STAMPER: Great. Thanks, everyone. We appreciate you taking the time to listen to our call today. Please feel free to obtain a transcript which should be available on our website within a few days or please don't hesitate to call if you have any specific questions of our firm or any of our investment products. Our next call will be in July 2012 to discuss the first half of the year. Thank you and I hope everyone has a safe and successful New Year.
Market Outlook and Commentary Transcript: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Audio | PDF | iPod/MP3